The safest 20x this cycle by Slowmad

Published: Dec 2024

The path to 20x gains is straightforward.

Most people just don’t see it because they get distracted by the prospect of small quick gains; Instead of holding a deeply undervalued coin and waiting a few months for 20x gains, they chase the latest, hottest fad coin for 2x gains over a few days or weeks.

This is, by the way, why the narrative on Crypto Twitter changes from week to week; Today it’s new generation memecoins, next week it's Murad’s memecoins, and two weeks later it’s A.I. agent coins, etc.

The problem with jumping narratives is the low upside relative to the downside. To get a total 20x return you’ll need many consecutive wins on these plays… and the risk on each of them is easily a -60% loss. Very few people end up making money this way.

Here, I offer a better approach. While the downside could also be -60% (as an example), the upside is 20x - 40x and the chance of walking away richer is meaningfully higher.

To understand the thesis, we first have to distinguish between two narrative categories:

• Speculative
• Actual use case

Speculative narratives are those that people buy into primarily because they believe someone else will buy their bags later at a higher price, for the purpose of further speculation.

The most obvious example of a speculative narrative is memecoins. Practically no one buys a memecoin because they find value in it; People buy it only because they want sell it at a higher price to later speculators... much like how a ponzi system works.

Speculative narratives can be profitable and have their place… but I’ll explain why this is not the narrative category you want to bet on in 2025.

💪 Actual use case

An actual use case is something people (even outside of crypto) are already using today for its own sake.

Examples: Store of value, payment transfers. People around the world today are willing to pay for assets that hold value, and/or to send payments quickly and conveniently.

Now the thing about the crypto industry is that we've yet to find many actual use cases for blockchain technology.

The few we’ve discovered are:

• Store of value: Bitcoin
• Payment transfers: Stablecoins
• Lending/Borrowing: Lending/borrowing protocols
• Currency exchange: DEXs

These are use cases people value for their own sake (and are willing to pay for), not merely as something to speculate on.

Also note that these use cases are in the same sector: Decentralized finance (DeFi).

This is not a coincidence. Crypto was, after all, invented to disrupt the traditional finance industry.

So this has been crypto’s primary use case thus far: To make transactions uncensorable, more secure, more transparent, faster, cheaper, and accessible to a global audience 24/7.

Now it’s important to separate these two narrative categories (speculative vs actual use case) because this bull run is inherently different from all prior bull runs: It’s driven by institutional capital.

🏦 The institution-led cycle

While all prior cycle bull runs were led by retail capital, this bull run has been - and will continue to be - driven by institutional capital, starting with the spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Here’s the thing about institutional capital:

• It’s multiples larger than retail capital.
• It can only allocate into serious projects. You won’t see BlackRock buying Iggy Azalea's MOTHER coin for example; Institutional capital will only flow towards projects with at least some semblance of utility.

So what kind of crypto projects are institutions most likely to buy into?

We won't have to guess, because BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has already spelled it out for us (BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager).

“We believe the next step going forward will be the tokenization of financial assets.”
— Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock

This is the cycle where TradFi officially enters crypto. And the ramifications are still poorly understood.

The irony is that crypto twitter has been saying for years: "Institutions are coming"... And now that institutions are actually here, they turn away from utility coins in favour of (meme)coins that institutions cannot buy.

💰 The underestimated Real World Asset (RWA) boom

When people think about RWA, they usually think about public securities like treasuries and stocks.

Yes, the tokenization of treasuries and stocks will make their trading more secure, more transparent, much faster, far cheaper, and accessible to a global audience 24/7 (a 10x improvement)… but that’s just a small portion of the value being unlocked.

You see, the biggest value unlock of RWA isn’t in public securities – it’s in the illiquid, private, and fragmented securities that almost no one can access, or that don’t even exist yet.

Imagine being able to invest in (and trade) tokenized Pokemon cards, backed by the real thing that’s securely stored and verified by regulated custodians.

Now imagine the same with luxury real estate, rare wines, vintage cars, VC funds, limited edition Lego sets... anything people around the world would want to invest in!

I’m talking about TRILLIONS of dollars worth of previously illiquid, private and/or fragmented markets that will be put on-chain to be traded in a secure, transparent, fast and cheap way, and accessible to a global audience 24/7.

Remember, RWA isn’t just a speculative narrative. People outside crypto are already investing in these assets; The demand already exists. Tokenizing these assets just makes it safer, more transparent, faster, cheaper, and much easier for people around the world to access.

Last cycle, smart contract protocols (like Ethereum) got popular because of a core value proposition: to tokenize real world assets and trade them as digital assets. Alas, the tech infrastructure, legal frameworks and institutional demand were not ready back then.

Today, all three aspects are primed and ready just in time for the 2025 bull run.

The sheer amount of incoming RWA capital will surprise even the most optimistic observers.

Today, only about $5B of real world assets have been tokenized.

But with major institutions projecting a 400x - 6000x increase over the next 5 years, the rate of growth will - as we crypto natives like to say - melt faces.

And that's not all.

Every private asset with sufficient demand will be tokenized. That's a $250 TRILLION market opportunity; The largest one the world has ever seen.

When the bull run kicks in in 2025 and the RWA narrative catches a bid, expect these numbers to be parroted and extrapolated higher.

The point is that most people today (crypto natives included) severely underestimate how big the RWA narrative will get.

Nobody is looking at RWAs right now... and that's where the big opportunity lies.

🧑‍⚖️ Regulated or nothing

RWAs differ from all other crypto sectors in one major aspect: Regulation.

Real world assets are already regulated irl so the only legitimate way to bring them on-chain is also with regulatory approval.

Unregulated RWA projects can never succeed because (1) the underlying assets cannot be verified, and (2) even if they can, the project will be promptly shut down because it’s trivial for the government to locate and lock down these assets.

I bring this up because - and this is the dirty secret - most RWA projects today are actually illegal; They do not possess the required licenses to operate.

Now here’s another thing to consider: You can copy crypto software but you can’t copy a government license.

In prior bull markets many successful projects were forked by copycats who wanted to cash in on the hype. In the coming bull run (2025), legitimate RWA projects cannot be forked because it takes years to get a license.

This means that the leaders of the RWA boom next year will have next to no competition.

Think about that.

With all this said, you’re now ready to understand why this RWA project is my pick for the safest 20x gain in 2025.

👨‍🚀 IX Swap

What is IX Swap?

Simply put, it’s the Uniswap for RWA tokens.

This is a bigger deal than it sounds at first. A launchpad and exchange for RWA tokens is much harder to pull off than a normal web3 launchpad/exchange because it requires regulated 3rd party custodians AND government approval.

Here's what people don't yet realize: It takes *years* to set up the connections and licenses required to operate a legal RWA exchange or launchpad.

The next thing you need to know is that IX Swap is already up and running with the required licenses and RWAs that are fully investible in and tradable today.

This is in stark contrast to many other so-called "RWA projects" that are merely paper promises with no live application or required licenses.

Some examples of RWAs tradable on IX Swap right now:

• Tokenized ownership of income generating YouTube channels
• Tokenized ownership of net profits from a luxury wine collection
• Tokenized ownership of a crypto gaming investment portfolio

Another major point: IX Swap is one of the few RWA projects open to retail investors 100% legally.

Most other RWA projects - including some of the biggest ones - are only open to accredited investors. Retail investors like you and me cannot invest in those RWAs.

Other facts about IX Swap:

• Founders are fully doxxed and regularly give interviews and talks
• Backed by Coinbase Ventures (Coinbase has partnered up with BlackRock)
• Advised by Balaji Srinivasan and Gabriel Abed (Binance chairman)
• Parent company InvestaX is licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore; IX Swap has obtained the Bahamas DARE license suite
• Is slated to provide RWA services for Coinbase and Binance

With credentials like these one would expect the valuation of the IX Swap token (IXS) to be in the billions... but - and this is the kicker - right now its market cap is just $80M.

👨‍🚀 InvestaX

InvestaX is the parent company of IX Swap, run by the same CEO and team.

While IX Swap is open to small retail investors, InvestaX focuses on institutions and accredited investors.

Crucially, InvestaX (and its team) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore which is known for its strict standards and difficult-to-obtain licenses.

IXS is the utility token for both IX Swap and InvestaX.

☝️ Actual use case + Speculative potential

From an investment perspective, the best projects combine an actual use case + speculative potential... and there’s perhaps no better example of this than Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s use case is a store of value… but it’s the speculative potential that took its price from $16k to $100k this cycle -- What would the price be if every country held bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset??

Now - the majority of crypto projects today are entirely speculative with no real use case. A few have actual use cases but with low speculation potential (eg. future cash flows/gains can be easily approximated and priced in).

IXS has a strong use case AND high speculative potential -- What if TRILLIONS of dollars of previously illiquid and/or private market RWAs are brought on-chain and traded on IX Swap??

The speculative potential is immense.

When people start seeing this, a 20x re-rating of IXS should occur quite easily.

And frankly, I think it will go quite a bit higher than that (more on this later).

📋 IXS tokenomics

• 180 million tokens in total
• All tokens fully circulating (no unlocks left)
• Deflationary (portion of fees used to buyback and burn IXS)
• Not listed on any tier 1 CEX yet; Given existing connections to Coinbase and Binance, a listing on those exchanges is likely

IXS Token utility:

• Discounted platform fees
• Stake to receive RWA tokens
• Liquidity pool pairing
• Governance

IXS contract address: 0x73d7c860998ca3c01ce8c808f5577d94d545d1b4 (on Ethereum)

More details at https://www.ixswap.io/products/ixs-token

📈 IXS price target

I'm not one for public price targets because - once popular enough - they don't get hit. I've seen this happen too many times.

So instead, I'll give you some guidelines as to how I'm thinking about this, and you can make your own estimate.

Considerations:

• The total crypto market cap peaked at $3T last cycle. With institutional capital coming in this cycle, the peak will likely be at least $10T, with altcoins seeing the bulk of the gains.
• Given its unique position, strong team and high speculative potential, IXS will likely be a top performer in the RWA sector.
• Its closest comparable, UNI, peaked at $22B market cap last cycle.
  

This should give you a rough idea of some price targets. If we take even just 10% of UNI's peak last cycle, that's already more than a 20x.

Charting:

• IXS is currently consolidating, but with altcoin season just around the corner an upside breakout can happen any day now.

🛌🏻 The comfy downside

So yes, IXS has huge upside potential.

But what makes it a golden opportunity is the exceptionally low downside.

Think about it. The project

• is backed by Coinbase and a preferred RWA partner to Binance
• is advised by Balaji Srinivasan & Gabriel Abed (Binance chairman)
• is run by fully doxxed founders with decades of professional experience
• is licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore with some of the strictest regulatory standards in the world
• is positioned in the sector that BlackRock specifically singled out as the 'next step' in an industry about to enter alt season
• is already live and running with RWAs you can invest in today
• is one of the very few that can legally accept retail investors
• has a fully circulating token supply (fully unlocked)

AND is right now trading at a mere $80M market cap.

Consider: How much lower can the price realistically drop from here?

For reference, here are some of its peers (with similar backers, consumer segment, or licenses):

• ONDO - $2.4B market cap, $16.5B FDV
• CHEX - $608M market cap, $608M FDV
• CPOOL - $311M market cap, $430M FDV
• CFG - $253M market cap, $277M FDV
• SYRUP - $127M market cap, $272M FDV
• IXS - $80M market cap, $80M FDV

As the bull cycle starts running in 2025, these numbers will almost certainly go up.

And when that happens, what are the chances IXS will be trading below $80M?

Unless there's a major protocol hack, scandal, or World War 3 occurs, I'd say the chance is pretty close to zero.

This makes IXS, for me, the comfy-est hold with >20x upside potential.

Keep in mind: I’m not saying that IXS will deliver the biggest gains in 2025.

I’m saying that IXS has the highest upside relative to downside (the best risk-reward profile).

There are tokens that have larger upside, but with much larger downside; Just like there are tokens with smaller downside, but with much smaller upside.

If you’re conservative and just want a 2x return, there are safer bets to be making.

If you’re super aggressive and want a 100x gain regardless of risk, IXS is probably not suitable for you.

Depending on your personal circumstances and risk tolerance, IXS may or may not be something you want to bet on.

For me, it’s the safest way to hit my portfolio targets this cycle.

🗒️ TLDR

• Unlike past cycles, this cycle has been - and will continue to be - driven by institutional capital.
• Institutional capital is magnitudes larger than retail capital and can only allocate into legitimate projects with real utility like DeFi and RWAs.
• The RWA sector is currently overlooked and underestimated.
• Most RWA projects are either unregulated, not actually in operation, or not open to retail investors.
• IX Swap is one of the few that's fully regulated, LIVE and in operation, and open to retail investors.
• IX Swap is one of the very few projects that cater to long tail RWA, a massive untapped market.
• IX Swap is one of the very few projects with an actual use case + high speculative potential.
• Founders are doxxed and regularly interact with the public.
• Backed by Coinbase Ventures and partnered with Binance, BNB chain.
• Advised by Balaji Srinivasan & Gabriel Abed (Binance chairman).
• Not listed on tier 1 exchanges yet; Given existing connections, a listing on Coinbase and Binance is likely.
• IXS token supply is fully unlocked.
• Market cap currently under $100M.
• Even a conservative peak price target should deliver an easy 20x from current levels.
• The downside risk is - in my view - exceptionally low relative to the upside potential
• Given real utility, quality backers, strong team, speculative potential and (currently) low market cap, IXS is the safest 20x I’ve found this cycle.
  

🔎 DYOR

Website: https://www.ixswap.io/

InvestaX: https://www.investax.io/

Basics: https://www.ixswap.io/news/ixs-worlds-first-and-leading-rwa-platform

X: https://x.com/IxSwap

IXS token: https://www.ixswap.io/products/ixs-token

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ixswap

Telegram: https://t.me/ixswapofficial

Discord: https://discord.gg/uHyFMyXj

Overview report (by Avish Investments): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1u5cdrPMw4HddT3u-oy3ihyeu7wrBLJob/view

 Thanks for reading

I hope this has been useful.

If you'd like to hear more about my views on crypto and GameFi, join my free newsletter and follow me on X/Twitter.

Cheers 
Slowmad

P.S. If you have any questions or feedback, let me know at: chris[at]digitalslowmad[dot]com

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