Digital Slowmad newsletter
4 November 2022
Crypto portfolio update
Net return: 606.4%
Comments: There was recently a brief period of bullish euphoria as ETH rallied 30% from the local lows and DOGE jumped 160%:
This reinforced speculation that the bear market might be ending but the latest FOMC meeting crushed those hopes when the Fed warned of US rates peaking at a higher level than expected, and that rate hikes will not stop any time soon.
Upon this news, the DXY, bonds and stocks immediately resumed their prior trend... indicating that the fundamental landscape is likely to keep deteriorating.
With these developments, my base expectation is another leg down in crypto. At the very least, we should see the total market cap fall below $800 billion:
In my view, therefore, it is not yet time to start DCA-ing; I wouldn't be surprised to see prices fall another -30% from current levels.
If you want to know exactly when (and what) I'll be buying, join my private group.
Bear market vibes
The last 6 months has been torture for the crypto community.
Between the high profile blowups, exploits, scam pumps and slow erosion of prices, anger and disbelief has given way to boredom and despair.
Understandably, many have either left the space or resorted to taking leveraged bets on low cap shitcoins.
With the exception of a very small group of skilled traders, nobody is making money right now.
On a personal note, I'm taking this opportunity to learn, write and surf on the Island of Gods, Bali. I've been here 4 months now.
In particular, I've been reading up on the basics of Solidity and NFT development. I'm not becoming a web3 developer any time soon, but I think it'll be useful to understand a bit of what goes on under the hood when I click those Metamask buttons.
Having a strenuous exercise routine (surfing) is also doing good things for my physical and emotional wellbeing. I eat better, sleep better, feel better. Friends tell me I look healthier, more alert, more vibrant.
This is why I'm comfy sitting back waiting for the bear market to play out. Though I think the ultimate bottom is not far away, I'm in no rush to jump into action.
An adage I subscribe to is "Don't chase the market, let it come to you."
A relaxed, non-urgent mindset helps one see things more objectively and be able to recognize important signs when they show up. Half of the battle is seeing what's actually there, and not what you wish to see.
The market loves to stir up emotions so you make dumb decisions. If you're at peace, you don't get triggered by every 10% move and can keep moving forward with conviction. In a bear market, slow and steady wins the race.
When the vast majority of the (remaining) crypto investors get frustrated... that's when the next bull run is born.
Quote of the week
An approximate answer to the right question is worth a great deal more than a precise answer to the wrong question.
- John Tukey
Realistic fighter plane gameplay
Great video. Super immersive:
Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.
P.S. If you have any questions or feedback, let me know at: chris[at]digitalslowmad[dot]com
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