Crypto portfolio update

Exposure: 2.0%

Net return: 617.5%

Comments: The overall market outlook remains bearish and there's not much to be done in this environment.

The only "positive" catalyst in the near future is the Ethereum merge (scheduled around 13 Sep), but I grow increasingly skeptical about the bullishness of the event.

For one thing, the lack of new funds coming into the industry means that we are largely operating in a zero sum, PvP type of landscape.

Now considering how well-publicized the ETH merge has been, my guess is that majority of people who wish to buy has already done so.

This begs the question: Who else is there left to keep buying?

Because without new buyers, the price cannot rise.

And here's the thing: The closer we get to the merge date, the more likely current ETH holders will sell their bags, especially those with the mindset of "buy the rumour, sell the news".

If I had to place a bet, therefore, I'd bet that ETH prices will not rise significantly in the near future (say, above $2,000).

This being said, a lot can happen in the next 11 days (before the merge) and I'm willing to change my mind if the situation changes.

Until then, I am not keen on holding ETH. At least, not at present prices.

Current allocation:

 Make JEWEL great again!

Two recent DFK announcements have revealed the devs' new priority: To raise the price of Jewel.

First, they are proposing to cut the max supply of Jewel to 125M (down from 500M), a 75% reduction.

This means that there no new Jewel will be minted and it will immediately become deflationary.

Second, the devs will be introducing game mechanics that burn locked tokens, most of which exists as locked Jewel:

The outcome is clear; All else being equal, the price of Jewel will go up.

Unsurprisingly, people started bidding Jewel upon the news.

Long term, the price of Jewel will depend on player demand.

For now though, the change of tokenomics is enough to get the price rising. 

Hopefully, this will boost morale in the DFK community.

How I'm playing this

As detailed in the previous newsletter I'm not optimistic about the long term prospects of DFK.

Based on these recent developments however, I do think there's a case for Jewel to rally in the more immediate term.

My plan is thus to keep mining locked Jewel and depositing it into the xJewel-Jewel farm on Crystalvale.

The time will come to sell again, but I think that time is not yet here.

As usual, I will announce all my moves in the private group.

Admin update

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Mountains don't care

A few years ago, I learned that in the Rocky Mountains, there are signs that warn travelers: "Mountains Don't Care"

If you come unprepared and get caught in the middle of a thunderstorm, the mountains don't care.

If you trip and twist your ankle, the mountains don't care.

The mountains don't give a sh*t about you.

But you go anyways. Because the reward is facing the challenge.

Lost on the slopes because you didn't pitch your tent in time before it got dark? Great, you'll learn how to maneuver in the dark and you won't make the mistake again.

Ran out of food on the third day? There's edible vegetation if you know what to look for. There are animals to hunt if you know how to track.

You'll feel like starving, but survival mode breeds creativity. You'll figure it out or die trying.

These are terrible times for everyone. It's tempting to blame everything on the situation: "Oh yeah we're going to be delayed because of x, y, z. We're not making sales because the economy is slowing down. It wasn't our fault. There's no way we could have predicted this."

But it's happened. We're deep in the mountains now. And surprise, the mountains still don't care.

So the best thing we can do is own it. We adjust, and we go hunting for the opportunities. We'll get hurt. We'll fall along the way.

But if we stop blaming and start moving, we'll get stronger.

And we'll make it to that next mountain.

- Kevin Lee

Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.

Cheers,
Slowmad

P.S. If you have any questions or feedback, let me know at: chris[at]digitalslowmad[dot]com

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