Crypto portfolio update

Exposure: 100.0%

Net return: 644.3%

Comments: The euphoria following the TRUMP memecoin launch was short lived as altcoin prices continued to plummet in the weeks after.

Notably, the prior two hottest sectors - memecoins and A.I. - saw the biggest declines.

You can see from these charts the selloff was pretty much a straight line down with no major pullbacks.

But it's not just memecoins and A.I. coins that are bleeding... the entire altcoin market is down.

So a LOT of people got rekt over the past few weeks and this has caused many - even some of the biggest influencers - to capitulate and quit (often not by choice).

This was an outcome I'd been watching out for and shared with the private group 10 days ago:

Sadly, my prediction came true. Everywhere I look, people are in despair and the common sentiment now is that there will be no alt season.

So is altcoin season over? Is the top in?

I share my view in the next section.

Current allocation:

🚪 Capitulation season

As you can probably tell from my portfolio exposure, I don't think the bull market is over.

Most altcoins are down, yes. But consider that the bulk of the losses occurred in the meme and A.I. sectors; BTC is still trading near its ATH and DeFi/RWA coins are not pulling back any more than they usually do.

So what gives? Why are memecoins and A.I. coins down so bad and why is the general sentiment so poor?

The simple explanation is that the majority:

• Bought into these narratives late
• Were over-allocated in them
• Managed risk poorly

It should also be noted that neither of these sectors had any real utility.

With memecoins, this is obvious. Everyone knows it's pure speculation and prices would crash sooner or later. But people were led to believe in a 'memecoin supercycle' so they held their bags much longer than they should have, even as prices started to turn.

With A.I. coins, it's more subtle. The uninformed (i.e. mass majority) were led to believe that 'A.I. x Crypto' would be the innovative new technology that ushers in a golden age for crypto. It was then revealed that most of these A.I. agents were little more than a ChatGPT plugin in fancy wrapping. Whatever utility these A.I. projects had did not warrant anything close to the valuations they were trading at.

In the end, many got rekt in these sectors because of misinformation and/or misunderstanding.

But I don't think this spells the end for altcoins this cycle.

If anything, the collapse of vapourware will finally drive interest back to projects/altcoins with real utility.

I said this in my 20x thesis from Dec '24:

And so it looks like another one of my predictions is on track to hitting its target.

In a big way, TradFi institutions are getting into crypto this year and things are lining up for projects with real utility to step into the spotlight.

Every bull market is preceded by a crash in sentiment... and the situation today might just be the "reset" needed for the market to pick up over the rest of 2025.

Things are always darkest before dawn, and I find it hard to imagine how much darker things can get from here.

So while I'm not necessarily saying that this is the bottom... it's probably not a bad idea to start scaling in to core positions right now.

Admin update

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🪖 Lord of War

Shoutout to one of my fav Nicholas Cage movies. In Lord of War, he plays an arms dealer who has to get creative to avoid getting caught.

Definitely an underrated gem.

 Quote of the week

If you need a degree to do it, it's not going to make you wealthy.

- Naval Ravikant

Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.

Cheers,
Slowmad

P.S. If you have any questions or feedback, let me know at: chris[at]digitalslowmad[dot]com

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