Crypto portfolio update

Exposure: 100.0%

Net return: 563.2%

Comments: Everyone's been talking/concerned about the Trump tariffs and the cuts in government spending (via the Department Of Government Efficiency), both of which are negative market catalysts.

The S&P500 did not take these developments well and dipped -10%; A meaningful amount for the index.

At the same time, bitcoin continues to trend lower and all this has led to an increasing number of crypto KOLs to turn bearish. Some of them expect BTC to dip into the $70k+ region before rallying to new highs in a few months, while others believe BTC has already topped.

So things aren't looking great at the moment and the crypto markets - especially altcoins - are widely expected to perform poorly.

I have my reservations about this view, partly because I don't think the macro environment is as bad as people make it out to be (the same data can be interpreted in different ways), and partly because I don't think the crypto cycle is over.

I don't expect most altcoins to perform moving forward (in typical "alt season" fashion), but I do think certain sectors will rally in the coming months and there are good dip-buying opportunities now if you know where to look.

If you've followed my writings and X account you know what I'm alluding to.

Value buys are best made when people are scared or in despair. Judging by the sentiment on CT and how much altcoins have fallen, I'd say we're likely at such a time.

Current allocation:

🚀 No more "alt season"?

It looks like crypto is finally growing up.

Past cycles saw colossal amounts of money poured into "projects" made up of little more than a website and whitepaper, grandiose yet impractical virtual worlds, monkey jpegs and the like.

Many people "invested" their money into ideas that had a near-zero chance of working out and ended up losing their shirts.

At the height of this mass delusion people poured their life savings into memecoins, believing they were at the cusp of some "supercycle" where every word in the english dictionary would have its own memecoin.

And when this massive bubble imploded, the industry - what was left of it anyway - took a long look in the mirror and did some overdue self-reflection.

Ultimately, we realized that most crypto projects don't work on any meaningful scale and that prior bull markets were driven mostly by ponzi-like speculation and crime rather than real use cases.

So the industry has grown tired of "believing" in pie-in-the-sky ideas and has become a lot more discerning with the projects it allocates into.

It then follows that we are unlikely to see an 'alt season' like in prior cycles where most altcoins pump at the same time.

As the market matures, capital flows less towards idea-based projects and more towards value-based projects.

Of course, pockets of dumb exuberance will continue to exist to some extent. But compared to prior cycles these will be few and far in between, and largely limited to a niche of degens and gamblers.

The market is getting more efficient, which means getting rich will be less based on luck and more based on skill.

So while there might be no more broad "alt season", there will still be altcoins that moon.

Your job is to figure out which ones will.

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🧠 Pantheon

As a long time sci-fi fan I found this series refreshing and enjoyable.

The animation style is meh but the story is pretty good. If you like The Matrix and Three Body Problem, you'll probably like this too.

💭 Idea of the week

Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.

Cheers,
Slowmad

P.S. If you have any questions or feedback, let me know at: chris[at]digitalslowmad[dot]com