Crypto portfolio update

Exposure: 16.3%

Net return: 601.1%

Comments: Little has changed since the last newsletter, and the overall market environment remains bearish.

Social media influencers have been talking about a "Santa Claus rally" but I don't think it's a good idea to compare past year-end rallies to the situation today. For one thing, we're in a drastically different macroeconomic environment (rising rates, high inflation, etc).

I don't pretend to know exactly where prices will end up on December 31st, but I think 'higher' is the least likely possibility.

As I've mentioned (repeatedly) in prior newsletters, I believe we have at least one more leg down before prices can make a meaningful push higher.

In accordance with this outlook, I went short ETH about 2 weeks ago.

From the private group:

Since then, ETH has slipped a little but I think there's room for it to run further (to the downside).

Nothing is set in stone of course, as the situation is fluid and always evolving.

I repeat my stance from the previous newsletter: Now is not a bad time to DCA into projects with solid fundamentals, but tread lightly and do not take big positions.

Current allocation (does not include short ETH position):

 DeFi Kingdoms hero speculation

Details of the hero combat traits were released earlier this week:

Based on the article, a few inferences can be made:

1. Hero positioning will be a vital component of combat strategy

Heroes can be placed in 3 positions on the battlefield.

My guess is that these represent the 3 lines of battle formation: Frontline, midline, backline.

Example:

With no further details on positioning, here's my speculation.

I see two possibilities:

1. Damage falloff from the Position1 to the Position3. (eg. If a Position1 hero is attacked, he receives 100% of all damage. If a Position2 hero is attacked, he receives 80% of all damage. If a Position3 hero is attacked, he receives 60% of all damage); OR
2. Damage falloff for physical damage only. Magic damage deals 100% damage to all heroes without distance falloff.

This would present an interesting battle dimension for positioning strategy.

For example, a Position1 hero might be pushed to Position2 (say, with the 'fear' effect), and then all Position2 heroes would then take 100% damage from attacks.

Conversely, a Position3 hero might be pulled into Position2 to receive 80% of damage (instead of 60% if he had stayed on Position3).

There are many variations of how this might work, but you get the idea.

2. Overpowered traits

Traits I consider overpowered:

• Blinding Winds: A basic attack with an 80% chance to blind (that persists until removed) is much more impactful than all other basic traits. This is especially true since 'accuracy' seems to affect BOTH physical attacks and magic abilities. And in case this isn't clear: A 50% drop in accuracy halves the effectiveness of a hero. This should have been an advanced trait at the minimum.
• Exhaust: A basic attack with a 100% chance to stop an enemy hero from taking an action next turn? I'll take this trait all day every day.
• Second Wind: This can single-handedly turn the tide of a battle. It's too impactful (unfair) in my opinion. At least it's hard to get (as an elite trait).

When combat is released, I expect these traits to outperform.

3. Class-specific traits to get

A few suggestions.

Tank classes

• Fearless: Tanks will typically be placed at Position1. Being unable to get pushed to Position2 will help your backline. Also, being unable to deal physical damage is a big setback for a melee hero.
• Critical Aim: Critical damage is typically expressed as a percentage of basic damage. So you want this trait on heroes with high basic attack damage such as tanks (due to their typically high STR).
• Explosion: Same reasoning as Critical Aim. You want this trait on heroes with high basic attack damage.
• Clear Vision: Tanks usually have high attack (STR) damage, so having a blinded tank will put you at a significant disadvantage; Clear Vision reduces the chance of this happening. It's a counter to (the overpowered) Blinding Winds trait.
• Stalwart: Tanks have the highest HP in the game, and poison is most effective against them (since it deals damage in % terms). Stalwart helps protect your meaty tanks from losing their HP quickly.
• Second Wind: With the highest HP in the game, tanks benefit the most from this trait.

Physical DPS classes

• Blinding Winds/Deathmark/Exhaust/Daze/Stun: Physical DPS heroes have the highest AGI stats so they will often be the first to act in a round. With these traits, the enemy heroes can be debuff-ed before they can act, so you can control the pace and direction of the battle.
• Clear Vision: To counter the overpowered Blinding Winds trait.
• Giant Slayer: DPS classes usually have low HP so this trait is good for taking out most other heroes, especially tanks (that will almost certainly have higher HP)

Spellcasting classes

• Chatterbox: If Spellcasters get silenced they are effectively useless.
• Clear Vision: To counter the overpowered Blinding Winds trait.
• Toxic: Spellcasters typically have access to numerous AOE-damage and damage-over-time spells. This trait multiples the chances (for each instance of damage) of the enemy team getting poisoned.

I hope this has been helpful.

For more in-depth ideas, consider joining the private group.

Admin update

• If you missed the previous newsletter, you can read it here.
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 Why Tom Cruise's Run Matters

I like Tom Cruise movies (Top Gun: Maverick was a treat).

One thing I've noticed - but could never quite put my finger on - are his running scenes. Why are they so iconic?

This video explains:

 Quote of the week

We act as though comfort and luxury were the chief requirements of life, when all that we need to make us happy is something to be enthusiastic about.

- Charles Kingsley

Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.

Cheers,
Slowmad

P.S. If you have any questions or feedback, let me know at: chris[at]digitalslowmad[dot]com

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