Newsletter 241002 - Iran attacks Israel

Digital Slowmad newsletter

4 October 2024

Crypto portfolio update

Exposure: -69.1%

Net return: 688.0%

Comments: Over the past 2 weeks CT influencers have been nonstop bullposting, citing 'Uptober' and a bullish Q4.

The thinking is that the Fed just started cutting rates and Q4 has historically been the most bullish quarter for Bitcoin:

As much as I'd like to be a massive bull however, the macro fundamentals do not support such an outlook. In the previous newsletter I also mentioned that Bitcoin is ranging and most altcoins are still in a downtrend... and the situation has not changed.

The only thing that's changed in the last 2 weeks is sentiment on CT becoming overwhelmingly bullish. Almost every crypto influencer was screaming "buy" and "max longing".

Almost every big influencer posted something like this on various altcoins

Now when there's a big gap between facts and consensus sentiment like this, I start getting interested... because that's where the best opportunities are found.

If you follow me on Twitter/X you know I rarely make public predictions, especially one with a specific date attached to it... but I posted this on 29 Sep:

Few people saw this tweet (less than 300 views) and even fewer paid attention to it.

...

Then on 1 Oct:

The market fell on the news:

It's important to note that I didn't specifically predict the missile attack but rather an event that would cause the market to sell off (which turned out to be a missile attack). There were a handful of other potential events that could have triggered the sell off and I only predicted that one of them would occur on 1 Oct.

Judging by the sentiment I'm seeing at Token2049 and CT today, I think a lot of people are going to be surprised by what's coming in Q4 this year.

If you'd like to get my unfiltered takes and real-time updates of my calls/predictions, consider joining the private group.

Current allocation: