digital slowmad

Digital Slowmad newsletter

30 September 2022

📊 Crypto portfolio update

Exposure: 5.2%

Net return: 606.5%

Comments: The US bond and stock markets are in trouble, and the persistently strong USD has forced the Bank of England and Bank of Japan to intervene and stabalize their own bond and currency markets.

Clearly, the macro outlook is deteriorating and everyone is in defensive mode right now.

And with the Fed having reiterated their commitment to fight inflation (via restrictive policy), risk assets aren't likely to recover any time soon.

So the best crypto asset to hold in these times is stablecoins, and my portfolio today reflects this view:

🤕 Crypto influencers massively down

I've been following a number of prominent influencers over the past 18 months, and am surprised at how many of them have poor market sense.

It turns out they are mostly "big picture" guys who invest with the following perspective:

  • Crypto will be big in the future
  • Just buy and hold BTC/ETH (and maybe some L1s)
  • That's pretty much it

They present beautiful charts and stories about why crypto is going to be 'the next big thing', but have glossed over the most important aspect of good investing: knowing when to buy.

Naturally, they claim that nobody can time the market... but my observations over the past 18 months say otherwise.

There are less-popular anons that regularly demonstrate an ability to 'time the market', and my own experience - shared in the private group - has also proved that 'timing the market' is indeed possible.

So my gripe is that instead of saying "I can't time the market", the big name influencers arrogantly declare that nobody can.

They also claim to be "already wealthy" and can tolerate large drawdowns in their crypto portfolio... which is suspiciously convenient. They commonly say "I have a good income/I'm already rich so it doesn't matter if my crypto investments go down."

I find this to be disingenuous (to say the least) because what they've effectively done is put themselves in a "no lose" situation. If the market goes up, they'll say "I told you so"; If the market goes down, they'll say "I'm doing fine, I've got an income/I'm already rich".

The problem is that this "no lose" situation does not apply to 99% of their audience, and they very well know this.

Think about it. If you've followed their advice/suggestions, you'd be steeped in heavy losses today.

And instead of saying "I was wrong", these influencers continue to sell the idea that they'll "eventually" be right. 

This reminds me of a tweet I made some time ago with regards to DFK maxis (i.e. blind Jewel HODL'ers):

This isn't to say that I think BTC/ETH will capitulate like Jewel did, but that a blind HODL-ing approach is bad investing especially for a highly volatile asset like crypto.

Some people are starting to realize this as even the long-term BTC holders are capitulating with significant losses today:

Meanwhile, the so-called "already wealthy" influencers are now selling 4-figure access passes and research reports in this bear market:

I have to say, I'm envious that these influencers can make so much money as "crypto experts" while being massively down at the same time.

Their audience has been so mesmerized by beautiful presentations that they don't even recognize the fact that their portfolio has been torn to shreds.

For many of them, their only hope to breakeven now is for a massive bull market to show up.

Instead of being able to buy at heavily discounted prices today, they're stuck with a huge bag of unrealized losses that they can only hope to recover from.

Alas, as I often like to say... hope is not a strategy.

This is how people can go through an entire market cycle and walk away with nothing.

💬 Quote of the week

Keep ignoring feedback and life will keep teaching you the same lesson.

- James Clear

📝 Admin update

  • If you missed the previous newsletter, you can read it here.
  • New here? Join this newsletter for free.
  • Shameless plug: My private group has vastly outperformed the prominent crypto influencers, and you can still join today for for $9

😌 Fantasy diorama crafting

I love watching videos like these before bed. They are interesting and strangely calming.

Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend. 🥃


P.S. If you have any questions or feedback, let me know at: chris[at]digitalslowmad[dot]com

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