Digital Slowmad newsletter
18 November 2022
Crypto portfolio update
Net return: 622.4%
Comments: The big news this week was the spectacular implosion of FTX and Alameda. It's been a complete sh*tshow and I won't ruin your day by talking about it. If you're interested, this post covers most of what probably happened.
Of course, crypto tanked on the news; In the following 48 hours, BTC and ETH fell -25% and -30% respectively.
Sadly, all this happened right after a number of prominent influencers called "the bottom of the bear market" and said it was time to buy.
Anyone who followed those calls - especially if they bought altcoins - lost at least a quarter of their money in two days.
Meanwhile, our private group was short BTC and was warned to withdraw from FTX two days before it blew up:
Not to brag but this is the difference between influencers and practitioners. The former gets paid for engagement while the latter gets paid for results.
Many in the community have yet to realize this and get led to the slaughterhouse while the influencer continues to get paid via ads and sponsorships. It's a sick system, but it is what it is.
And actually, every big winner is funded by big losers.
I hate seeing people lose money, but the reality is that their poor decisions are how I make a profit.
You see... in order for me to make money from my BTC short, someone needs to be on the other side of the trade.
So in a way, these influencers are doing me a favour by getting scores of people to take dumb actions.
I've lamented this state of affairs for a long time... but by now I'm sanguine about how the game is played. I do my best to educate people, but I don't lose a single night's sleep if they don't listen.
Now on to my market outlook.
In the previous newsletter I wrote:
And this has indeed come to pass; BTC has made a new low and the total crypto market cap fell below $800B:
Note that this doesn't mean that I think the bottom is in; I'm waiting for a further dip before I start buying.
The time to get greedy is approaching, but it's not here yet.
As usual, private group members will be the first to know when I take action.
DeFi Kingdoms on Dapp Radar
DFK Chain stats have been properly added to Dapp Radar and we can finally have a clear picture of how the project is doing.
The key stat here is Unique Active Wallets (UAW). As you can see, this metric has been trending down from a peak of 50k to around 6k today.
To no one's surprise, fewer and fewer people are participating in the game especially during this bear market.
The question is, will participation go up once the bear market is over? There's absolutely no way to tell until we get a glimpse of what PvE and PvP is like.
Meanwhile, people in DFK Discord are locking up their tokens for up to 3 years, citing confidence in the game. This makes zero sense to me but hey it's their money and they can do whatever they want.
Now this doesn't mean that I'm bearish on Jewel. While I have no opinion on DFK gameplay (because it doesn't exist), I do see a potential case for buying the token. As I've said before, 'DFK the game' is not the same as 'DFK the investment'.
The time may come when I start accumulating Jewel again, and if/when that happens I'll let everyone in the private group know (including my thesis).
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What colour is this dress?
I love visual illusions. They are a fun reminder of how easy it is to trick human perception:
Quote of the week
Amateurs react. Professionals prepare.
- Farnam Street
Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.
P.S. If you have any questions or feedback, let me know at: chris[at]digitalslowmad[dot]com
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