Crypto portfolio update

Exposure: 100.0%

Net return: 1463.2%

Comments: Little has changed since the last newsletter and my big picture outlook remains the same.

As expected, the last two weeks saw altcoins continue to bleed and even the memecoin sector (the darling category of Q1 2024) has lost some luster.

DonAlt caught a lot of flak for this take... and though I'm inclined to agree with it, it's a mistake to share it so publicly; There are far too many plebs with underperforming bags looking for an easy scapegoat to attack.

I've learned this lesson the hard way (iykyk) and so now only post my biggest alpha takes in the private group.

The reality is that there's little benefit for real practitioners to share their most valuable opinions in public because - pretty much by necessity - most people will hate them for it.

The most dangerous time to buy into a narrative is when it's the consensus play. The second most dangerous time is after prices have already gone up and underwater bagholders are universally attacking those who advise caution.

Current allocation:

Mass disagreement & confusion

In past cycles, the market typically followed a sequence of capital rotation: 

This is the now-famous diagram that most people in the industry abide by -- It states that Bitcoin first rallies, followed by Ethereum, then large altcoins and finally the rest of the altcoin market.

So when BTC rallied earlier this year, people started buying ETH and large altcoins to frontrun this dynamic.

By now however, it's clear that the expected rotation did not play out. Instead, it was just BTC and memecoins that rallied while almost everything else sold off - especially in the last month.

This explains the adversarial attitude on CT lately... as most people have significantly underperformed BTC, with many being down on the year.

TLDR: The standard crypto rotation playbook isn't working. Most people have underperformed BTC, hold underwater altcoins bags, are confused about what's going on, and don't know what to do next.

With no widely agreed framework of how the rest of the cycle will play out, even the big CT influencers have begun to disagree and argue about what lies ahead.

The only ones happy with the status quo are those who've been holding BTC and/or flipped memecoins... and I'm glad to say our private group falls into this category.

Sometimes, outperformance simply means preserving one's capital when others are losing theirs en masse.

Admin update

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🤯 Astropulse trailer

Imagine Starcraft and Diablo had a baby. 

If this piques your interest, check out this trailer (warning: depictions of demonic themes) :

 Quote of the week

It's hard to grow beyond something if you won't let go of it.

- James Clear

Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.

Cheers,
Slowmad

P.S. If you have any questions or feedback, let me know at: chris[at]digitalslowmad[dot]com

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