Crypto portfolio update

Exposure: 100.0%

Net return: 1605.7%

Comments: BTC has closed the month of April with a textbook reversal (bearish engulfing) pattern and the timeline is filled with doomcasts:

Now while BTC has dipped just -23% (in line with all other dips since 2023), altcoins are in shambles:

Even the darling L1 coin this year has retraced -44% from the high:

And don't forget this cycle's gaming poster child (one of Ansem's top recommendations), which fell -50%:

It is thus of no surprise that the sentiment on CT is abysmal. The whole market is down and many (most?) portfolios have been chopped in half.

Thankfully, the private group has largely preserved our capital throughout this period despite being fully allocated.

Some thoughts

When it comes to "making money", people tend to focus too much on offense and not enough on defence. Adopting a balanced approach necessarily means we won't be appearing on 'Top 5 traders' leaderboards... but the chance of suffering a large loss is significantly reduced; And avoiding a big loss is better than getting a big gain.

So, until BTC makes a convincing new ATH I will continue to be selectively aggressive and err on the side of caution.

Current allocation:

📈 Selective pumps

It's been an interesting year for altcoins.

A few months ago everyone was shilling dozens of tokens among the hottest narratives: Modular chains, Gaming, A.I., Memecoins, SocialFi, etc.

Today, only one category has provided durable pumps: Memecoins. And even then, only a few memecoins are still trading near their ATH today.

So - to outperform the market you'd have to (1) select the one right narrative and (2) select the right 2-3 coins within that narrative. Not an easy task. 

No longer can you just buy a basket of coins in all "hot" narratives and expect to do well - People who followed this approach in 2024 are heavily down on their portfolios right now.

Moving forward, I'd expect this dynamic to continue. The "spray and pray" approach to crypto investing/speculation will only lead to underperformance.

This is the inevitable outcome of the crypto market getting more efficient.

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🪖 Supreme Commander

The older I get, the more I appreciate grand strategy games. This one is a RTS hybrid that looks pretty good.

 Quote of the week

I've always thought the way to build a long-term track record is when you really see the ball, swing really big. And when you don't see the ball, don't swing.

- Stanley Druckenmiller

Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.

Cheers,
Slowmad

P.S. If you have any questions or feedback, let me know at: chris[at]digitalslowmad[dot]com

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